Gartner: Agentic AI to Define Next Wave of Enterprise ROI

A warning from the International Monetary Fund’s recent forecast warns that markets may be “excessively optimistic” about the profit potential of AI, fuelled by growth concentrated in a handful of major players.

This, Gartner warns, comes at a critical inflexion point for CIOs planning their next moves.

The business and technology insights business’ caution coincides with the release of its 2026 CIO & Technology Executive Survey, which captures the shifting ambitions and anxieties of 2,500 global CIOs and technology executives. 

The findings show a world eager to spend on AI that is increasingly divided by regulation, geopolitics and expectations for return on investment.

Gartner: AI spending is rising, and caution is growing

Gartner’s survey finds that AI and Gen AI investments are surging.

Of those surveyed, 89% of global CIOs plan to increase AI spend in 2026 – a figure that sits around 87% of CIOs when just looking at Europe. 

However, Gartner finds these executives are “balancing ambition with caution” in particular as economic pressures and digital sovereignty demands reshape the technology playbook.

According to Gartner’s research, Western European CIOs report slower movement from pilots to scaled AI deployments due to tighter budgets, tougher regulations, and the volatile geopolitical climate. 

It also finds that isolationist currents are more than passing trends: 22% of Western European CIOs now expect to reduce their reliance on international tech vendors and 27% are looking to strengthen ties with regional providers.

“Driven by the geopolitics of AI, CIOs and technology executives should recognise that vendor geography and data sovereignty risks are now viewed by many of their peers as a critical consideration in developing a global vendor portfolio,” says Chris Howard, Distinguished VP Analyst and Chief of Research at Gartner. 

“This criteria is likely to rise in importance based on growing geopolitical risks and cost pressures.”

The transatlantic divide

The gap between US and non-US technology executives is widening, Gartner finds.

The data shows that 50% percent of CIOs and technology executives outside the US anticipate changes in vendor engagement due to regional factors, compared to only 31% of their US-based counterparts.

Among non-US CIOs, one in three aim to shift focus toward regional tech vendors, while just 16% of US CIOs signal a similar move.

“All technology vendors, but especially those in the US, should be aware of this because it is a threat to their ability to serve as ‘vendors of choice’ across a global market,” Chris says.

“This may be the beginning of a shift in hegemony that will play out over the coming years.”

From pilots to agentic AI

While geopolitics impacts procurement, the boardroom focus is on operationalising AI to drive outcomes and demonstrate value. 

Gartner’s report shows that stakes are rising.

“2025 was about AI pilots, discovery and experimentation. 2026 will be about delivering agentic AI ROI,” says Kris van Riper, Practice Vice President at Gartner. 

From pilots to agentic AI

While geopolitics impacts procurement, the boardroom focus is on operationalising AI to drive outcomes and demonstrate value. 

Gartner’s report shows that stakes are rising.

“2025 was about AI pilots, discovery and experimentation. 2026 will be about delivering agentic AI ROI,” says Kris van Riper, Practice Vice President at Gartner. 

“Gen AI will continue to be important but agentic AI will soon become the main investment focus. Agentic AI offers a more direct path to business value than previous Gen AI initiatives. “However, successfully achieving value from these investments requires internally-developed capabilities across five key value pillars: a business-aligned AI roadmap, clear and measurable value targets, upskilling initiatives for workforce readiness, robust data governance​ practices and the ability to reprioritise resources.”

With 64% of technology executives planning to deploy agentic AI over the next 24 months, Gartner’s research signals that the window for experimentation is closing and that execution now rests on a company’s ability to embed AI into its operating backbone. 

Failure to deliver could mean missing out on the core return-on-investment targets that justify these ambitious technology budgets.

“Technology executives have advanced AI and Gen AI deployments and are now expanding into agentic AI,” Kris says. 

“This progression reflects a strategic focus on leveraging AI’s next frontier for greater impact on operations and customer experience. 

“We are seeing a significant prioritisation of AI investments, which are expected to grow by more than 35% year-over-year. 

“This is in the context of a very constrained IT budget environment.”

Failure to deliver could mean missing out on the core return-on-investment targets that justify these ambitious technology budgets.

“Technology executives have advanced AI and Gen AI deployments and are now expanding into agentic AI,” Kris says. 

“This progression reflects a strategic focus on leveraging AI’s next frontier for greater impact on operations and customer experience. 

“We are seeing a significant prioritisation of AI investments, which are expected to grow by more than 35% year-over-year. 

“This is in the context of a very constrained IT budget environment.”