Can Apple's Foldable iPhone Compete With Google & Samsung?

Apple is preparing to launch its first-ever foldable iPhone at the end of next year, according to Bloomberg.

This represents an unusual strategy for the iPhone manufacturer.

Historically, Apple has entered emerging markets early and redefined them entirely. The iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch and AirPods all reshaped their markets. 

But in this instance, Apple is years behind its main competition — Samsung and Google.

“When the company introduces its first foldable iPhone at the end of next year, it will be entering a product category that's already seven years old — pioneered and dominated by its biggest hardware rival, Samsung,” says Mark Gurman, Apple Chief Correspondent and Managing Editor of Global Consumer Tech at Bloomberg.

So, is it a calculated gamble, or a mistake waiting to happen?

Are foldable phones in demand?

When Samsung launched its first foldable smartphone in 2019, many critics wondered whether a flip phone — a quirky novelty in the noughties — made sense in the age of the touchscreen.

In the intervening years, the South Korean manufacturer has found a certain level of success with models like the Fold6 and Flip5, but it’s inarguable that adoption has been slow.

In 2023, just 1% of phone users owned a foldable device in key markets including the UK, US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Australia, according to research by Kantar.

Last year Samsung failed to hit its targets, with some reports suggesting that it planned to lower production rates on both its Flip and Fold models.

So, with the market still largely unconvinced by the technology, why has Apple decided to throw its billions behind the launch of its first ever foldable device?

In short: because Apple has a history of perfecting what others can only prototype.

“Apple rarely aims to be first to market. Instead, it focuses on timing the market — entering once the technology, supply chain and user behavior are mature enough to justify a premium experience,” says Felipe de Stefani, CEO at 5Díaspy.

Following Samsung's playbook

Apple's strategy for this new product range will be to follow the lead of the market’s frontrunners.

Mark believes that Apple’s folding phones will use many of the same core components as Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold devices.

And while the sales of its foldable phones have been slower than hoped, Samsung is continuing to push the envelope when it comes to R&D, leading experts to review the Fold7 as the first folding phone with true mainstream potential. 

It is this potential that Apple will look to capitalise on.

“Apple's first foldable won't break any technological barriers or redefine the category,” Mark suggests. “Samsung has already taken care of much of the heavy lifting.”

“It might not shake things up right away, but with Apple’s strong brand and marketing, it could still become a hit,” says Santiago Ginebra Campillo, Senior Federal Legislative Advisor for the City of Chicago.

“Just don’t expect it to be the kind of innovative leap we've usually seen from Apple.”

Targeting China

Despite entering an established market, Apple's foldable iPhone is expected to command premium pricing.

The new foldable iPhone is expected to cost at least US$2,000, providing Apple with a mechanism to boost iPhone revenue even if unit sales remain modest.

The launch appears to be particularly targeted at the Chinese market, where flip phones have become hugely popular recently, growing 27% year on year.

China is also a market in which Apple is looking to renew growth, having lost custom to Asian manufacturers in recent years.

Local brands like Xiaomi, Honor, Huawei and Vivo have all launched foldable devices in the region since Chinese consumers have started to show their preference for the format.

What impact might Apple’s folding phone have?

Apple's entry into foldables may benefit Samsung's component divisions through increased demand for foldable displays.

The launch could also generate broader interest in foldable devices among Android users considering Galaxy alternatives.

“With its brand power, marketing muscle and engineering refinements, Apple could once again turn a niche product into a global hit,” Mark suggests.